Breakthrough?

Things are moving. The Indonesian presidency of the UN talks in Bali has tabled a compromise text on how future emission reduction commitments could be worded in a Bali roadmap. German environment minister Sigmar Gabriel is suddenly calling the US “flexible”. Journalists are looking busy.

press-room-6pm.jpg

The proposed text, which ENDS has seen, drops the notorious 25-40 per cent cuts for developed countries but says global greenhouse gas emissions must peak in the next 10-15 years and be reduced to “very low levels, well below half of 2000 levels by 2050”. These are “facts” that should guide future action to combat climate change, it says.

All that’s left of the original statement that developed countries need to make “much deeper cuts” in the range of 25-40 per cent by 2020 is: “developed countries should continue to take the lead in combating climate change and its impacts”.

All this has to do with the preamble of the proposed Bali roadmap. Indonesia’s compromise text also suggests changes to the operative part of the paper. This includes removing the word “national” from a section calling for consideration of quantified emission reduction commitments by developed countries.

In the same section a call to consider the work of the Kyoto protocol’s working group has also been deleted.

What does all this mean? Before I speculate, I should warn you that things are shifting very quickly here now. Nevertheless, the draft compromise text as it stands, which sources say was well-received, indicates the US may now be open to including specific long-term global emission reduction goals in the preamble to a Bali roadmap.

This would be a significant victory for the EU. At the same time, the sticking point appears to be what distinction there should be between developed and developing countries and exactly what the former should commit to at this stage.

Deleting the word “national” from the section on developed country emission reduction commitments suggests the US may be sticking to its guns on the point that while long-term shared emission reduction goals can be agreed internationally, each nation should then be free to decide its own national goal and strategy to achieve it.

Removing reference to the Kyoto protocol adds to the idea that the US and its supporter(s) would want to be as free as possible to set their national goals.

But all this is speculation. A UNFCCC press conference that was due to start in 15 minutes has just been pushed back by an hour-and-a-half, which doesn’t bode well. Rumours abound that some ministers have already changed their flight schedules.

Meanwhile, there is also confusion over the status of discussions on the other building blocks of the roadmap, like deforestation. Contrary to reports earlier this morning, several delegates have since said forestry talks have not yet been concluded, although a final agreement along the lines of what I reported is “very close”.

One source of confusion is that this conference must produce two outputs for these building blocks: first, draft conclusions that must be approved by ministers in their final plenary session, and second, a decision on how to reference the building block in the overall Bali roadmap.

Clearly the two are linked, but UNFCCC chief Yvo de Boer suggested earlier today that draft conclusions on deforestation, adaptation and financing are pretty much ready and it is how they must be referenced in the overall roadmap that remains to be decided.

As I write, two working groups are meeting, each comprised of a small selection of minsters together representing all other parties. One group is finalising work on deforestation, adaptation and financing – technology transfer was fully concluded last night – and the other is working on the Bali roadmap. I’m hoping Mr Gabriel was right when he said “it’s going a bit better.”

Advertisements
%d bloggers like this: